John K. Hollmann will present an integrated set of PRQ methods that work for projects, programs and portfolios.
Decision makers depend on reliable cost and schedule risk analyses to give them conﬁdence in their decisions. To deliver reliability, cost engineers and risk analysts need to apply project risk quantification (PRQ) methods that work. That means the PRQ methods should be:
* based on empirical research and validated against actual data,
* applicable on all projects– simple and complex, large and small, conceptual or detailed, and good or bad quality estimates and schedules, and
*simple enough that consultants are not needed except for an outside view of strategic projects.
Unfortunately, few methods meet all these criteria. This presentation reviews research on cost growth, schedule slip and accuracy and will present an integrated set of PRQ methods “that work” for projects, programs and portfolios of every description for both owners and contractors. The presentation is based on the presenter’s recent book: “Project Risk Quantiﬁcation: A Practitioner’s Guide to Realistic Cost and Schedule Risk Management." This book is founded on decades of international research and AACE International Recommended Practices.
John K. Hollmann, PE CCP CEP DRMP FAACE, Hon. Life AACE
Owner | Validation Estimating LLC
Mr. Hollmann works with capital program managers and project leaders to improve cost estimating, project control and cost/schedule risk quantification practices. John regularly reviews major international estimates and conducts risk analyses in support of investment decision making and contingency setting.
Mr. Hollmann is a frequent speaker at international conferences, has written many papers and was lead author of the AACE® International text; the Total Cost Management (TCM) Framework. John is an Honorary Life Member of AACE® and recipient of their Award of Merit. He is former Director of Recommended Practices at AACE® and also led development of the AACE® Decision and Risk Management Professional certification.
Prior to founding VE, Mr. Hollmann led the Cost Engineering Committee metrics and research efforts at Independent Project Analysis, Inc.(IPA). John is a registered Professional Engineer, a Certified Cost Professional, a Certified Estimating Professional and Decision and Risk Management Professional.
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