Opinion piece by Dr Jerome Catbagan MIEAust CPEng NER, based on Autonomous Vehicle Impacts on Traffic and Transport Planning, a paper he recently presented to stakeholders from various agencies of the ACT Government. Dr Catbagan is a Chartered Professional Engineer with over 20 years’ combined industry and research experience. He currently manages SMEC’s Traffic & Transport Planning Group in the ACT and Southern NSW. SMEC is a Partner of Engineers Australia.
Autonomous vehicles will be available in the market much sooner than what most people think and could be quite common by 2030. Recent developments worldwide, such as the self-driving taxis in Singapore, Uber’s driverless service in Pittsburgh, USA, and the driverless bus trial in Perth, all point to a future transport network that is dominated by vehicles using this technology.
In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the development of autonomous (or driverless) vehicles, not only because of the obvious benefits this technology offers, but because of the impact such transport technology will have on society. It will radically change the way people view and use road transport. It will also deliver dramatic changes to people’s lifestyles. With mobility no longer dependent on driving capability or driver behaviour, people’s choices in terms of housing, work, shopping and recreation will alter fundamentally. This paradigm shift will have an enormous effect on how cities are developed, with potential changes in land use allocation, jobs distribution, and commercial and retail development.
The main benefit of driverless vehicles is increased safety. The major proportion of vehicular accidents are attributed to driver behaviour – around 94% in the United States, according to the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey conducted between 2005 and 2007. [1] Other studies have found similar results, all of which cite human error (or at least in part) as the cause of over 90% of the vehicle crashes investigated. [2][3] Removing the ‘human factor’ from the operation of motor vehicles is therefore presumed to significantly improve safety in car travel.
Another benefit is the enhancement of the 'driver' (or user) experience. A 'driver' would be able to do other things, instead of focussing on the road, and can be more productive while undertaking their journey. This could potentially deliver significant economic benefits as people on their way to work would already be able to engage in work-related activities while in their vehicle. Those travelling longer distances could participate in group activities (if travelling with others) or sleep, creating a more pleasant and relaxing user experience.
Thus, driverless vehicles are expected to significantly improve the safety and overall experience of land travel. It will also allow people to be more productive, promote social inclusion and greatly influence how cities are shaped. It will impact society as profoundly as how the car improved mobility in the 20th century.
[1] National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Critical Reasons for Crashes Investigated in the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey. Traffic Safety Facts, Crash | Stats, U.S. Department of Transportation, February 2015.
[2] Sabey, B.E. and Taylor, H. The Known Risks We Run the Highway. Transport and Road Research Laboratory, Crawthorne, England, 1980
[3] Hendricks, D.L., Freedman, M., Zador, P.L. and Fell, J.C. The Relative Frequency of Unsafe Driving Acts in Serious Traffic Crashes. Prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, Washington, D.C., USA, January 2001.
Image: stock image.