When you make a large and sudden change in a chemical mix, at the very least the result will be unexpected. At worst it will create an explosion. The same goes for major and sudden changes within any complex system, says Dr Tim Stone (pictured above) who will be speaking about a a systems approach to sustainable energy at the Australian Engineering Conference this November.
“When we change markets slowly and on a small scale they tend to work very well and adapt very efficiently,” Dr Stone says. “If, however, you change them on a large scale and more quickly, it tends to create something other than what you wanted or expected and often very inefficiently.”
Dr Stone has the practical experience to back up his argument. He is the longest serving member of the Board of the European Investment Bank. He is also a non-executive member of the Arup Group Board, a non-executive director of Horizon Nuclear Power and Chairman of Nuclear Risk Insurers.
Dr Stone has advised infrastructure investors, funds and advisory firms, was Chairman and founder of KPMG’s Global Infrastructure and Projects Group, was Managing Director of S.G. Warburg in New York and London and a Managing Director of Chase Manhattan Bank.
Most of his observations, however, come from his time in and advising government in England, Wales and Australia. During seven years in British Government one of his responsibilities was to drive the 2050 Pathways process for the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC).
By 2050, DECC says, emissions must be cut to just 20% of the levels from 1990.
“How are we going to do that? How can we possibly get there? What will it look like? What are our options?” Dr Stone asks. “It is such a multifactorial problem that it is difficult to explain to anybody outside of science and engineering.”
As part of trying to answer these questions, the 2050 team developed a calculator (currently on the DECC website) to allow anybody and everybody to have a go at coming up with a solution.
The calculator not only helped mine the knowledge of thousands of people, but also demonstrated to the public that a system is not nearly as easy to change as they thought. ‘Simple, ‘obvious’ and ‘logical’ solutions, the calculator showed, are anything but. The calculator has since been the inspiration for similar models in many countries, including China.
“It helped people to understand the long-run consequences of decisions,” Dr Stone says. “As we head towards solutions like solar, battery storage and big wind, you have to start thinking about the entire system. It is not a series of disconnected pieces. The UK has a grid designed in the 1950s for coal-powered generation, and it is increasingly stressed by its day job.”
At the Australian Engineering Conference, Dr Stone will be discussing ideas and challenges around such systems, including physical, technical, financial and particularly political issues. He looks forward to sharing his views on the things that need to be done, especially with an audience of engineers.
“We will talk about what I view as the irreducible stewardship role of government,” he says. “The government has to be a steward of infrastructure. They don’t have to build, manage or own it, but they have to make absolutely certain it is there. They cannot allow it to drop off the edge and decisions must not be taken around the electoral cycle. The constantly changing political environment is deeply unhelpful when you’re dealing with a system that requires stability. Get it wrong and it is national economies that are at risk.”
How does a society, led by its government and experts, come to decisions around how to prepare for the future of its major infrastructure? How do we avoid the shock and uncertainty of major change and instead move to a system of small, planned changes? How do we stay focussed on a point 30-plus years in the future when political leaders, particularly in Australia, are lucky to survive 18 months? Dr Stone doesn’t claim to have all the answers, but he certainly has the experience to get you thinking.
To learn more, secure your spot at the Australian Engineering Conference where Dr Tim Stone will talk about adopting a systems approach to sustainable energy.