Phasing out fossil fuels to be an engineering and social challenge Wednesday, 04 May 2016

A lot more thought and engineering will need to be put into the transition between fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, says experts.

Anthony James, a lecturer for the National Centre for Sustainability at the Swinburne University of Technology, wrote in The Conversation that while 100 percent renewable energy supply systems are technically and economically feasible, it is the transition process during which fossil fuels are “swapped out” for renewables which will pose the greatest challenges.

According to James, while future energy sources can definitely supply enough energy to meet predicted future demands, most studies and models do not provide a detailed road map for taking fossil fuel energy sources offline, and replacing them with renewable energy options.

New independent modelling from a non-profit organisation called Understandascope indicates the transition between the two types of energy sources will result in a significant decline in the availability of overall energy services, as the process itself has increased energy demands.

This means that any transition will have a significant economic impact. Planning and engineering will play a key role in reducing this impact, and ensuring the momentum for a renewable rollout is maintained across the transition period.

The model from the Understandascope is based on “net energy services”, which is defined as the total work and heat that energy sources make available to end users, after the energy required to provide that supply is subtracted.

For example, petroleum as an energy source requires energy to find it, produce it, transport and refine it in the first place.

Solar photovoltaic systems, on the other hand, require energy to mine the raw materials, manufacturing, installation, and replacement.

As such, net energy services refers to the actual useable energy from a given source, which can be used for other purposes, like heating, moving things, and transport.

According to the modelling, the faster the transition between fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, the more energy the process will demand, resulting in competition between any transition initiative and other economic activity.

The model utilises as a starting point a transition period of 50 years over which fossil fuels are phased out. The major issue comes due to the time lag between energy investments and returns — the period of time between the energy spent to mine, manufacture and establish the infrastructure for photovoltaic panels and their battery systems, and when the solar farms start producing energy.

In the example scenario of a 50-year transition period, the model predicts net energy services will decline by more than 15 percent before recovering.

This decline is expected to impact the global economy, and may also have an effect of dragging out the transition period, further lengthening the amount of time needed for the net energy services to return to a pre-transition level.

A phasing out of fossil fuels will also require significant capital investment. In a 50-year transition model, wind and solar plants will need to be installed at eight to ten times current rates by 2035.

This will require around US$3 trillion per year of capital investment and average lifetime capital cost in the order of US$5 trillion to US$6 trillion per year.

This is a massive increase in spending for energy, considering that the International Energy Agency’s figures forecasts global investment for all energy supplies, including fossil fuels, to be only US$2 trillion per year by 2035.

To so drastically increase the share of world spending on an energy transition would require major, united political will across both the public and private sectors.

Of course, engineers can play a role in helping mitigate these challenges. Improved engineering expertise can reduce the energy costs associated with mining the raw materials and manufacturing of renewable energy systems.

Through efficiency improvements, it may also be possible to drastically reduce the lag between the initial energy investment, and the return on that investment when solar farms and wind farms go online.

Furthermore, as engineers continually improve technologies and processes, it may be possible to reduce the overall amount of energy needed for the global economy to function, further reducing the impact of phasing out fossil fuels.

However, James says at the end of the day, any improvements in efficiencies will need to be matched by a shift in collective priorities and attitudes. Society on the whole will need to transform, and redefine progress, wellbeing and quality of life, while reducing our reliance on energy.

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