Risk vs reality: How reliable a judge are you? Thursday, 11 May 2017

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Any engineer worth his or her salt knows that proper assessment of risk is vital to the success of any project. But are you as rigorous with your risk assessments when it comes to daily life (and death)?

Whether you're too scared to venture more than ankle deep in Byron Bay, or squeeze your partner's hand extra tight during take-off and landing, fear of a grisly death is a common human trait.

What's less rational, however, is why many of us fear tragic events that have little chance of occurring, yet we're all too happy to turn a blind eye to one of the biggest factors in determining mortality: our ongoing health.

Just three Australians die each year on average from shark attacks, and the same goes for terrorist attacks. Plane crashes account for an annual average of 37 deaths, but most of those are in small chartered planes that few of us will ever board.

This is just a drop in the bucket compared to the number of people who die each year from heart disease (20,000), dementia (13,000), stroke (11,000), and throat and lung cancer (8000), the four leading killers of Australians.

But here's the real kicker: we know these health issues pose a significant risk (see graph), yet often do absolutely nothing to mitigate their likelihood or impact on our families.

In a recent survey, NobleOak, an independent life insurer, asked more than 1000 Australian adults to rank fatal events in order of likelihood.

Survey participants were surprisingly accurate in identifying risk, with only dementia (including Parkinson's and Alzheimer's disease) a commonly overlooked threat, significantly underestimated.  

 

  Perceived risk of death         Actual risk of death
Cancer      1          1
Heart attack      2          2
Car accident      3          5
Stroke      4          4
Dementia      5          3
Plane crash      6          6
Terrorist attack      7          9
Lightning strike      8          8
Shark attack      9          7

 

Yet even when we can correctly perceive a threat, we often don’t take appropriate action to head it off.

For starters almost two in three Australian adults (63%) are overweight or obese, which significantly increases the chances of suffering cancer, a heart attack or stroke, all leading causes of deaths. Yet the same NobleOak survey found just 15% of people have some form of trauma insurance, which can provide a lump sum cover for diagnosis of those conditions.

So what's our excuse?

It comes down to our lazy brains, according to renowned risk perception expert David Ropeik, an instructor at Harvard University and author of the book How Risky Is It, Really? Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts.

Ropeik said that our species is not very good at dealing with long-term risks.

“Ask people about their future health, and most people will predict brighter futures than average,” he said.

“We are overly optimistic about things when they are far enough in the future that we can't see the details. Academics call it optimism bias.”

On the other hand, we're much more likely to do our best to ensure we don't meet with a sudden and grisly end.

“People are more sensitive about risks that are catastrophic, which kill people all at once in one place, than we are about risks that are chronic,” Ropeik said.

“What happens to people in a plane crash feels pretty high up on a list of awful, painful and nasty ways to go. It sounds a lot worse – and scarier – than dying of heart disease.”

Diligently planning ahead and being able to correctly assess and mitigate against risks isn't just vital for your success as an engineer; it's crucial for you and your loved ones to live a long, healthy and enjoyable life – extremely unlikely encounters with sharks, terrorists and plane crashes aside, of course.

Learn more about how Australians perceive and deal with risks here.

NobleOak specialises in life insurance, offering discounted premiums for professionals. Learn more here.

https://www.nobleoak.com.au/